German Interior Minister: Further assessment of the protection status of recognized Syrian refugees living in Germany depends on the developments in Syria.Central bank sources and two Syrian commercial bankers: the Syrian Central Bank and commercial banks will resume operations on Tuesday, and the staff will be required to go to work.Market news: Mohammed Al Bashir will form a transitional government.
Huaxi Securities Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December: The policy strength showed an upward trend. The Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that the release signal of this meeting was positive. Judging from the significant strength of Hong Kong stocks and A50 futures, the content of the meeting greatly exceeded previous market expectations. There are mainly the following aspects: First, the policy tone is more positive. "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", which is used to describe countercyclical adjustment for the first time, reflects the upward trend of policy strength. The policy of this year's two sessions is expressed as "strengthening countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies", the Politburo meeting in July "strengthening countercyclical adjustment" and the Politburo meeting in September "strengthening countercyclical adjustment". From the point of view of change, it gradually turns to counter-cycle instead of cross-cycle, and the intensity is constantly upgrading. Create a follow-up policy for the market that may continue to be introduced until the economy stabilizes and rebounds. At the same time, the meeting did not mention "coordinating the expansion of domestic demand and deepening the structural reform of the supply side", but directly mentioned the expansion of domestic demand, which is also a manifestation of facing the problem more directly and attaching importance to the demand side. Second, as far as finance and money are concerned, this meeting mentioned "implementing a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier "more" was added in front of the active fiscal policy. A similar expression was found in the Politburo meeting in April 2020, "The active fiscal policy should be more active and promising", and then in May, the two sessions formulated a large-scale fiscal combination boxing (deficit ratio 3.6%+, 3.75 trillion new special debts and 1 trillion special national debts). The third is to stabilize the property market and write the stock market into the 2025 goal. The fourth is to pay attention to consumption. The meeting mentioned "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency and expanding domestic demand in all directions". It is expected that the policy of promoting consumption will make a breakthrough in scale and direction. Fifth, the meeting also mentioned science and technology (to lead the development of new quality productive forces with scientific and technological innovation and build a modern industrial system), green (to jointly promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green growth, and accelerate the overall green transformation of economic and social development) and foreign trade. Emphasizing science and technology, it is clear that the direction of future policy is in the industrial direction led by science and technology. At the same time, for green, because next year is the last year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, emission reduction and other targets need to be completed. In terms of foreign trade and foreign investment, the meeting mentioned that "it is necessary to expand high-level opening to the outside world and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment".Reuters survey: 27 of 31 economists believe that the Swiss National Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in December; Four people think that they will cut interest rates by 50 basis points; Fifteen of the 28 economists believe that the Swiss National Bank will cut the policy interest rate to 0.25% or lower by the end of 2025; 13 people think it will drop to 0.50% or higher.Xinhua Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.: It plans to acquire no more than 75% equity of Noah Shengnuo. Xinhua Pharmaceutical announced that the company signed an Intention Agreement on Equity Acquisition with NovoSanaB.V on December 9, 2024, and plans to acquire no more than 75% equity of Noah Shengnuo in cash, and will become its controlling shareholder after the acquisition. The specific acquisition plan and transaction price will be determined according to the results of due diligence, audit and evaluation.
Hisense Group layoffs? Insiders: The year-end adjustment is very small. Recently, a number of people claiming to be Hisense employees posted a message on the online platform saying that "Hisense Group is facing large-scale layoffs, with the number of employees reduced from 110,000 to 80,000, and the number of layoffs is as high as 30,000." Another netizen certified as an employee of Hisense Home Appliances said that "the list will be published next week". In this regard, Sina Technology asked Hisense for verification, and the company did not respond as of press time. However, some insiders of Hisense said, "There is indeed internal adjustment, but it is a small proportion for the normal optimization adjustment at the end of the year." (Sina Technology)Kaitou Macro: The fall of Assad is unlikely to have a major impact on the energy market. Jason Tuvey, an analyst at Kaitou Macro, said that the fall of former Syrian President Assad is not expected to have a major impact on the energy market. The economist said that even at the peak of about 600,000 barrels per day in the early 21st century, Syria's oil production only accounted for a small part of the global oil supply, and since the beginning of the civil war in 2011, Syria's oil production has declined. At present, the country's oil production is less than 100,000 barrels per day, and most of the country's oil infrastructure has been destroyed. In a report to clients, Tuvey said: "Even if the political situation stabilizes, it will take years or even decades to rebuild, and its economy may never return to the pre-war scale. The situation in the energy market is similar. "British Prime Minister Stamer meets UAE President.
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide
12-13